Wishbone 31 Sweep

Projecting the BCS: Florida out; ‘Bama and LSU for the title!

The upsets of BYU and USC reverberated throughout my Bowl Championship Series projection this week. More on that tomorrow, including a look at why Florida would not make the BCS if we picked it today.

For now, here is the BCS simulation.

If the BCS was selected this week:
Championship game: Alabama vs. LSU
Conference automatic berths (awarded to team with highest BCS ranking for the time being): Alabama, Texas, Cal, Penn State, Miami and Cincinnati
Automatic berth: Boise State (in yellow as we track them against the auto-berth conferences; lower-ranked auto-berth conferences in red)
At-large berths: Oklahoma and USC.
Dropped out: Georgia Tech, Florida
Outside looking in: Florida and Mississippi

Some notes: I’ve added computer-ranker Kenneth Massey’s actual BCS ratings to the worksheet. That required some modifications. I had to eliminate two Football Championship Subdivision schools and a team from Division III. I moved up the next three schools from the Football Bowl Subdivision. Everything else, outside of subbing the Associated Press poll for the Harris Interactive poll (which is not published yet), is the actual numbers the BCS will use. One other note, there are still only four computer rankings. I used all four. The BCS will throw out the highest and lowest computer scores and average the remaining four.

Click here for the BCS Selection Procedures.
Click here and here for my earlier projections.

Sunday morning thoughts

Some thoughts over morning coffee on Saturday’s games.

National title race shakeup

It’s tough to decide what to lead with when you have two big upsets on Saturday. USC, the team ranked second in my BCS projection, lost at Washington. BYU, ranked No. 6, was dismantled at home by Florida State.

I’ll start with USC, who I thought would play for the national title in January (and may still). USC’s 16-13 loss at Washington temporarily knocks them out of the national title picture, and leaves the PAC 10 race wide open for now. Cal should replace USC as the conference’s representative in the projected BCS. The key question is how far will the Trojans fall?

As for BYU, the shocking loss at home to Florida State definitely eliminates them from the national title picture. It’s just too hard for teams from non-automatic bid BCS conferences to overcome a loss in the polls. So the loss busts their BCS dreams. If they win out, they’ll knock on heaven’s door yet again, but fail to make it.

Or does a loss torpedo BYU’s chances? Not so sure. BYU can still win the Mountain West. The ACC and Big East still do not appear to have a Top 10 team. BYU is ranked pretty high and probably won’t fall that far. If they win the Mountain West, and Boise State loses, they can still sneak into the Bowl Championship Series by being ranked in the Top 12 at the end of the year, or be ranked No. 16 or better and be ahead of the Top team from the ACC/Big East. It was definitely a disappointing loss, but stay tuned.

Either way, the biggest winner this weekend was Boise State. And if anyone thinks the Fresno State game was “close,” please go read the box score. Granted it did get tight early in the third quarter, but Boise State dominated Fresno State late and shouldn’t be penalized in the human polls for winning a road game vs. a tough conference foe.

Other thoughts:

Florida: Wins, but was not impressive vs. Tennessee. Most over-hyped preseason team in history? Maybe.

Cincinnati: Nice win on the road at Oregon State. They’ll remain the Big East flag bearer in the BCS projections, but Pitt’s win vs. Navy will help the conference’s cause.

West Virginia: Losses a key non-conference game at Auburn. That loss will help fuel the debate that the Big East is down and the SEC remains king, something I hope to take a more in-depth look at this week if time permits.

Virginia Tech: Scores last second win over Nebraska, so the Hokies and Miami will carry the flag for the ACC this week in the BCS projection, though Florida State is probably coming back to the Top 25 in the human polls.

Utah: 16 in a row is a nice run, but it was too tough to go to Oregon and get a win. We lose our second BCS Buster of the year.

UL-Lafayette: What, you say? They checked in at No. 34 this week thanks to some decent computer rankings. They got housed at LSU, though, so they’ll be checking out this week. It was a nice run while it lasted.

Enjoy the professionals today and I’ll post the BCS projections as soon as the numbers are in tomorrow.

Around the BCS World

There are some compelling games this Saturday if you buy into the hype-fueled drama between teams (Tennessee at Florida, for example), but there are not a lot of good games this weekend outside of some of the possible BCS Buster matchups.

Here is the list of games involving teams who clock in somewhere in my BCS simulation rankings against other teams who are ranked. The number preceding each game is where they rank in the simulation. I’ll be back over morning coffee on Sunday to dissect what goes down today.

The big game
No. 20 Nebraska at No. 16 Virginia Tech
A huge game for the ACC. Miami’s dismantling of Georgia Tech on Thursday means that the top-ranked BCS ACC team has again lost for the second time this year. Miami will move up in the human polls (computers did not like Georgia Tech so not sure how the ‘Canes will fare with the electronic crowd), but they might not jump high enough to pass Cincinnati. Nebraska is looking for national respectability, something it hasn’t had in years.

Others to watch
No. 29 Arizona at No. 39 Iowa
Iowa’s ranking was hurt because of that close win over Northern Iowa. However, NIU is much better than anyone gave them credit for.

No. 18 Cincinnati at No. 31 Oregon State
Just as Virginia Tech’s game is a big one for the ACC, this one is just as big for the Big East. A loss possibly drops the Big East out of the Top 20 BCS rankings, though Pitt (at home vs. Navy) and West Virginia (at Auburn) could rise this week with wins.

No. 26 Texas Tech at No. 5 Texas
Texas gets a chance to get a quality win on its resume, which will help them rise in the computer rankings. Right now, the Jeff Sagarin rankings have no respect for the Longhorns. That should change when they roll Texas Tech.

No. 38 West Virginia at No. 40 Auburn
Big game for the Big East as it tries to gain some respect vs. the other power conferences that receive automatic berths to the BCS. Auburn looks to be in better shape this year, and could be a dark horse in the SEC race. I expect both teams to finish much higher in the BCS once the season progresses.

Week 3 BCS Buster Previews

Week 3 BCS Buster previews


View BCS Busters Week 3 in a larger map


The BCS Buster crowd lost East Carolina last week when the Pirates went down at West Virginia. But we picked up surprising Houston, who vaults to No. 3 in my rankings (and is idle this week). I have a feeling we’ll lose another one this week. Read below to see which team has its dream season ended.


Friday
9 p.m. EST

No. 2 Boise State 2-0 at Fresno State 1-1
Last week: Boise State pitched a shutout against Miami (OH). Fresno State lost at Wisconsin.
Boise State: Ranked No. 2 in my list of Top 5 BCS Busters, No. 7 in my BCS projection, No. 10 in the Associated Press and USA Today coaches polls.
Fresno State: Not ranked.
Comment: One of Boise State’s toughest conference games. Fresno State is always tough to play, let alone at home.
Next week: Boise State travels to one of college football’s big surprises this year, Bowling Green.

Saturday
3:30 p.m. EST
No. 5 Utah 2-0 at Oregon 1-1
Last week: Utah won its 16th straight game.
Utah: Ranked No. 5 in my list of Top 5 BCS Busters, No. 15 in my BCS projection, No. 18 in the AP poll and No. 16 in the coaches poll.
Oregon: Ranked No. 27 in my BCS projection.
Comment: Interesting game for a lot of reasons. This is Utah’s toughest non-conference test. They win here, in a very tough place to play, they will most likely be favored in their next six games, and could be favored Nov. 14 when they host TCU. I’ll be surprised if Utah wins here but not shocked.
Next week: Utah hosts Louisville.

7 p.m. EST
Texas State 1-0 at No. 4 TCU 1-0
Last week: TCU won at Virginia.
Texas State: Your guess is as good as mine. They beat Angelo State on Sept. 5, 48-28. Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings say they are the 165th best team in the country, which would make them roughly Top 30ish in the Football Championship Subdivision.
TCU: Ranked No. 4 in my list of Top 5 BCS Busters, No. 13 in my BCS projection, No. 15 in both the AP and coaches polls.
Comment: TCU should take care of business.
Next week: TCU travels cross-country for the second time in two weeks to play Clemson.

Florida State 1-1 at No. 1 BYU 2-0
Last week: BYU rolled Tulane.
Florida State: Tough loss vs. Miami on Labor Day. Struggled with Jacksonville St. last week.
BYU: No. 1 in my list of Top 5 BCS Busters, No. 6 in my BCS projection, No. 7 in the AP poll, No. 9 in the coaches poll.
Comment: By far the marquee game of the weekend for BCS Buster teams, if not the entire country. BYU is very tough at home. Though FSU is down, BYU must win decisively to show voters that the big win over Oklahoma was no fluke and they can play with bigger-conference schools. It helps that the game is on national TV. BYU wins here and they shouldn’t get tested again until Oct. 24 when they host TCU. If they lose here, their dream season is over.
Next week: BYU hosts Colorado State.


Idle
No. 3 Houston 2-0
Next week: Hosts Texas Tech.

BCS Watch Week 2: ‘Bama, USC strong; Florida weakens

Yesterday, I posted my projected Bowl Championship Series ratings, which take into account all games from week 2.

First off, I stand corrected. On Sunday morning, I thought USC’s win over Ohio State would solidify its hold on the top spot in the computer rankings. I was wrong.

I added the Colley Matrix ratings to the BCS simulation this week. Those rankings were not available last week (or were they?). Either way, Colley does not have USC rated as high as it does Alabama. The Crimson Tide polls better in all four sets of computer rankings, so they are now the top computer team, and are ranked No. 4 in the Associated Press and USA Today coaches polls. The combined rankings make Alabama the top team in the projected BCS rankings, so they replaced Florida in the title game. USC, No. 3 in the combined computer rankings and both human polls, is still in the national championship game though it moves down to No. 2 in the BCS rankings. I believe USC will play for the title in January, but it’s a long way to go.

Here’s the cliff notes version of my BCS projections. If you want the full worksheet, scroll down to the previous post, or click here.

Speaking of Florida. Those blowouts of lesser foes Charleston Southern and Troy State hurt the Gators in the computer rankings. Florida checks in at No. 7 this week in the computer polls (I projected them to be ranked No. 6 in the computers last week). Because of the drop in its computer ranking (a result of adding the new information from the Colley rankings and the fact they haven’t played anyone with a pulse yet), the Gators are tentatively out of the national championship game. However, it continues to ride the wave of its preseason hype, as it is an overwhelming No. 1 in both the AP and coaches polls.

Florida’s schedule looks pretty light on paper (save for a road trip to LSU and road game at Kentucky). Without any major non-conference games (sorry, Florida State doesn’t cut it), it will be interesting to watch the Gators’ BCS rank all year since they will most likely remain No. 1 with “us” humans. Because they excel in the “right” part of the BCS formula (2/3rds human polls + 1/3rd computer rankings = BCS points), they might just garner enough points to overcome the soft schedule. Either way, the soft schedule should cause plenty of controversy later in the season when other teams who play tougher schedules receive lower rankings in the BCS — especially if those teams go undefeated (BYU, anyone?).

Some other quick thoughts:

No. 1 BYU and Boise State remain ahead of the top-ranked teams from the ACC and Big East. BYU’s lead in the human polls offsets Boise’s lead in the computer rankings in the race to automatically qualify for the BCS. If one of the two finishes in the Top 12 and wins its conference championship (or any team from the MWC, WAC, MAC, Conference USA or Sun Belt, for that matter), it will automatically qualify for the BCS. If both teams (or maybe three if Houston makes a run) qualify, then the top-ranked team gets the automatic berth. That’s why we are tracking them with yellow lines. They are essentially in their own mini-BCS race amongst each other (for now; that can change quick).

No. 2 Houston has little support in the human polls, as I wrote about Sunday night. But it did receive props from some of the computers. If Houston remains undefeated, they should see a boost to their computer rankings. The Massey ratings, which are weighted in the preseason (similar to the Sagarin and Billingsley ratings), did not have Houston ranked this week. Overall, my projections show Houston at No. 15 in the computer rankings, and No. 23 overall.

As for now, I’d say their win Saturday over Oklahoma State was bigger than BYU’s win over Oklahoma. It’s interesting to watch how BYU parlayed its preseason hype with a big upset to launch up the polls, while Houston, which toiled in anonymity until this weekend, will have to fight and claw its way up the charts. It could be ammunition for the compelling argument some have made to not have any human polls until a few games are played.

No. 3 LSU, the second-ranked team by the computers this week, is the odd team out in my weekly projections because the BCS only allows two teams from one conference to make it (click here for the exception to that rule). However, they get Florida on Oct. 10 so they have a chance to play themselves into the BCS and national title picture.